> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://thecontentforge.gitbook.io/thecontentforge-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://thecontentforge.gitbook.io/thecontentforge-docs/investor-intel/thesis-journal.md). # Thesis Journal The Thesis Journal is where you write down *why* you believe something before the market tests it - and then let the product hold you to it. It is not a single notepad: it's a connected research workspace that pulls the evidence for you, snapshots the conditions at the time, watches for what changes, and brings each thesis back for review on a schedule. Your theses are **private to you**. ### Why write theses down Memory is a terrible record keeper. After a position moves, everyone remembers having better reasons than they had. A written thesis with a dated baseline keeps you honest: you can see what you actually believed, what you said would change your mind, and whether you followed your own rules. ### How it's organized A sub-nav strip sits across the top of the Journal, and **New thesis** is always one click away: * **Dashboard** - a status rollup (total / active / needs review / confirmed), the theses that need your attention, and your recent work * **Theses** - the full list, filterable by status, stance, type, horizon, date, and quality * **Trades** - the Trade Journal (plan and track trades linked to a thesis) * **Reviews** - the cross-thesis review queue (Due now / Upcoming) * **Analytics** - how your theses and trades have actually performed * **Settings** - how the Journal works and its privacy model Each thesis also has its own detail page with several tabs (below). ### Creating a thesis - the guided builder New theses are built in six steps: **Basics → Evidence → Draft → Scenarios → Rules → Review & save.** * **Asset Context Pack** - the heart of the builder. When you pick an asset, the Journal automatically pulls its recent evidence into ten sections - what changed, news, developments, partnerships, tokenomics/unlocks, usage/fundamentals, price/liquidity, risks, competitors, and catalysts. You label each card as it relates to your case: **support, risk, contradiction, a confirmation rule, an invalidation rule, a metric to track, or noise.** Creating a thesis becomes a research workflow, not a blank page. Where data is thin, the pack tells you so. * **AI coach** - optional **Draft with AI** and **AI critique** help you write and pressure-test the case. It is framed as research, not advice: it helps you reason, it does not tell you what to do. * **Thesis Quality score** - a live **0–100** score with gap hints, so you can see where the case is thin (no invalidation rule, no risks listed, no baseline metric) before you save. ### Anatomy of a thesis * **Type** - asset, chain, protocol, narrative, portfolio holding, trade, bear case, or watchlist * **Stance** - bullish, bearish, neutral, or market-neutral * **Conviction, horizon, and review cadence** - how strongly you hold it, over what timeframe (intraday to long-term), and how often it should come back for review (daily to on-event) * **Scenarios** - structured **bull / base / bear** cases, each with a narrative, a probability, a price target, assumptions, risks, and a review trigger * **Confirmation & invalidation rules** - what would prove the thesis is working, and what would prove it wrong. Writing the invalidation up front is the entire discipline: deciding what failure looks like before you are emotionally invested in not seeing it. These rules can be turned into live **Alerts**. * **Baseline snapshot** - captured automatically on save and kept permanently: price, a benchmark, fundamentals, and the exact evidence you selected. Future reviews compare against the world as it was, not as you remember it. ### The thesis page Each thesis opens to a set of tabs: * **Overview** - the bull / base / bear case and the headline state * **Evidence** - your labelled evidence set * **Chart** - price with markers for the thesis, reviews, trades, and rules, plus your scenario price levels drawn on * **Portfolio** - how this thesis connects to what you actually hold * **Trades** - trades you've linked to the thesis * **Reviews** - your review history * **Alerts** - the alerts created from this thesis's rules ### "Since you created this thesis" The Overview carries a delta card that shows exactly what has moved since your baseline: price, change vs. the benchmark, TVL, and volume, plus any **new evidence** that supports, weakens, confirms, or invalidates the case - and anything you haven't reviewed yet. This is the honest "how far has reality wandered from my written case" view. ### The monitoring engine - it suggests, you decide Periodically (or on demand with **Re-evaluate now**), the Journal reads *your* evidence and *your* rules and may **suggest** a status change - strengthening, weakening, or needs review - with the reasoning behind it. You always resolve it yourself: **accept, keep, or revise.** The engine never changes your conclusion for you. Status is yours. Statuses run the full lifecycle: draft, active, strengthening, weakening, needs review, confirmed, partially confirmed, invalidated, closed, and archived. ### Reviews Set a review cadence per thesis and the Journal schedules the next review. The **Reviews** queue collects everything **Due now** and **Upcoming** across all your theses, so review is a routine, not something you only do when a position hurts. Each review is a short note with an optional status or conviction change, and it's kept in the thesis's history. ### Trade Journal The **Trades** tab lets you plan and track trades tied to a thesis - entry, sizing, and outcome. It is a **planning and review tool only. Investor Intel never executes trades**, holds funds, or signs anything. ### Analytics & Portfolio conflicts The **Analytics** page turns your Journal into feedback: counts by status, how many need review, average conviction and quality, **win/loss by stance**, invalidations triggered, and trades placed without a thesis. A **Portfolio ↔ Thesis conflicts** panel surfaces where your book and your reasoning diverge - for example a holding with no thesis, a large holding whose thesis is weakening, or exposure that *increased* after a thesis weakened. ### Where it shows up You don't have to start in the Journal. Asset and market pages embed a thesis module that shows your existing thesis on that asset (or a one-click way to start one, including a bear case). Empty-state starters seed the builder from your **Portfolio, Watchlist, a Market, a News item, a trade idea, or a bear case**. ### How to use it 1. Write the thesis when you form the view, not after it has already worked or failed 2. Be specific in confirm and invalidate conditions; "number go up" is not a condition 3. Review on the schedule you set, not only when something hurts 4. When an invalidate condition triggers, take it seriously - you wrote it when you were thinking clearly 5. Let the engine's suggestions prompt a review, but make the call yourself ### Tips * Neutral and market-neutral theses are underrated: "I expect nothing interesting from X" is testable too * Turn a confirm/invalidate rule into an [Alert](/thecontentforge-docs/investor-intel/alerts.md) so a triggered condition finds you * A thesis that cannot be invalidated by anything is a belief, not a thesis ### Not financial advice The Journal - including the AI coach and the monitoring engine - provides research, structure, and risk framing. It classifies and surfaces; it does not tell you what to buy or sell, and your status and conclusions are always yours. See the disclaimer in [Investor Intel](/thecontentforge-docs/investor-intel/investor-intel.md). ### Related * [Narrative Radar](/thecontentforge-docs/investor-intel/narrative-radar.md) - narratives often seed theses * [Compare](/thecontentforge-docs/investor-intel/compare.md) - comparisons often end in one * [Markets](/thecontentforge-docs/investor-intel/markets.md) and [Asset Profiles & Enrichment](/thecontentforge-docs/investor-intel/asset-profile.md) - the evidence behind a thesis * [Portfolio](/thecontentforge-docs/investor-intel/portfolio.md) - where your theses meet what you actually hold * [Alerts](/thecontentforge-docs/investor-intel/alerts.md) - turn your rules into live notifications * [Saved Research & Settings](/thecontentforge-docs/investor-intel/research-and-settings.md) - keep supporting research next to the thesis --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. 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