Thesis Journal
The Thesis Journal is where you write down why you believe something before the market tests it - and then let the product hold you to it. It is not a single notepad: it's a connected research workspace that pulls the evidence for you, snapshots the conditions at the time, watches for what changes, and brings each thesis back for review on a schedule. Your theses are private to you.
Why write theses down
Memory is a terrible record keeper. After a position moves, everyone remembers having better reasons than they had. A written thesis with a dated baseline keeps you honest: you can see what you actually believed, what you said would change your mind, and whether you followed your own rules.
How it's organized
A sub-nav strip sits across the top of the Journal, and New thesis is always one click away:
Dashboard - a status rollup (total / active / needs review / confirmed), the theses that need your attention, and your recent work
Theses - the full list, filterable by status, stance, type, horizon, date, and quality
Trades - the Trade Journal (plan and track trades linked to a thesis)
Reviews - the cross-thesis review queue (Due now / Upcoming)
Analytics - how your theses and trades have actually performed
Settings - how the Journal works and its privacy model
Each thesis also has its own detail page with several tabs (below).
Creating a thesis - the guided builder
New theses are built in six steps: Basics → Evidence → Draft → Scenarios → Rules → Review & save.
Asset Context Pack - the heart of the builder. When you pick an asset, the Journal automatically pulls its recent evidence into ten sections - what changed, news, developments, partnerships, tokenomics/unlocks, usage/fundamentals, price/liquidity, risks, competitors, and catalysts. You label each card as it relates to your case: support, risk, contradiction, a confirmation rule, an invalidation rule, a metric to track, or noise. Creating a thesis becomes a research workflow, not a blank page. Where data is thin, the pack tells you so.
AI coach - optional Draft with AI and AI critique help you write and pressure-test the case. It is framed as research, not advice: it helps you reason, it does not tell you what to do.
Thesis Quality score - a live 0–100 score with gap hints, so you can see where the case is thin (no invalidation rule, no risks listed, no baseline metric) before you save.
Anatomy of a thesis
Type - asset, chain, protocol, narrative, portfolio holding, trade, bear case, or watchlist
Stance - bullish, bearish, neutral, or market-neutral
Conviction, horizon, and review cadence - how strongly you hold it, over what timeframe (intraday to long-term), and how often it should come back for review (daily to on-event)
Scenarios - structured bull / base / bear cases, each with a narrative, a probability, a price target, assumptions, risks, and a review trigger
Confirmation & invalidation rules - what would prove the thesis is working, and what would prove it wrong. Writing the invalidation up front is the entire discipline: deciding what failure looks like before you are emotionally invested in not seeing it. These rules can be turned into live Alerts.
Baseline snapshot - captured automatically on save and kept permanently: price, a benchmark, fundamentals, and the exact evidence you selected. Future reviews compare against the world as it was, not as you remember it.
The thesis page
Each thesis opens to a set of tabs:
Overview - the bull / base / bear case and the headline state
Evidence - your labelled evidence set
Chart - price with markers for the thesis, reviews, trades, and rules, plus your scenario price levels drawn on
Portfolio - how this thesis connects to what you actually hold
Trades - trades you've linked to the thesis
Reviews - your review history
Alerts - the alerts created from this thesis's rules
"Since you created this thesis"
The Overview carries a delta card that shows exactly what has moved since your baseline: price, change vs. the benchmark, TVL, and volume, plus any new evidence that supports, weakens, confirms, or invalidates the case - and anything you haven't reviewed yet. This is the honest "how far has reality wandered from my written case" view.
The monitoring engine - it suggests, you decide
Periodically (or on demand with Re-evaluate now), the Journal reads your evidence and your rules and may suggest a status change - strengthening, weakening, or needs review - with the reasoning behind it. You always resolve it yourself: accept, keep, or revise. The engine never changes your conclusion for you. Status is yours.
Statuses run the full lifecycle: draft, active, strengthening, weakening, needs review, confirmed, partially confirmed, invalidated, closed, and archived.
Reviews
Set a review cadence per thesis and the Journal schedules the next review. The Reviews queue collects everything Due now and Upcoming across all your theses, so review is a routine, not something you only do when a position hurts. Each review is a short note with an optional status or conviction change, and it's kept in the thesis's history.
Trade Journal
The Trades tab lets you plan and track trades tied to a thesis - entry, sizing, and outcome. It is a planning and review tool only. Investor Intel never executes trades, holds funds, or signs anything.
Analytics & Portfolio conflicts
The Analytics page turns your Journal into feedback: counts by status, how many need review, average conviction and quality, win/loss by stance, invalidations triggered, and trades placed without a thesis. A Portfolio ↔ Thesis conflicts panel surfaces where your book and your reasoning diverge - for example a holding with no thesis, a large holding whose thesis is weakening, or exposure that increased after a thesis weakened.
Where it shows up
You don't have to start in the Journal. Asset and market pages embed a thesis module that shows your existing thesis on that asset (or a one-click way to start one, including a bear case). Empty-state starters seed the builder from your Portfolio, Watchlist, a Market, a News item, a trade idea, or a bear case.
How to use it
Write the thesis when you form the view, not after it has already worked or failed
Be specific in confirm and invalidate conditions; "number go up" is not a condition
Review on the schedule you set, not only when something hurts
When an invalidate condition triggers, take it seriously - you wrote it when you were thinking clearly
Let the engine's suggestions prompt a review, but make the call yourself
Tips
Neutral and market-neutral theses are underrated: "I expect nothing interesting from X" is testable too
Turn a confirm/invalidate rule into an Alert so a triggered condition finds you
A thesis that cannot be invalidated by anything is a belief, not a thesis
Not financial advice
The Journal - including the AI coach and the monitoring engine - provides research, structure, and risk framing. It classifies and surfaces; it does not tell you what to buy or sell, and your status and conclusions are always yours. See the disclaimer in Investor Intel.
Related
Narrative Radar - narratives often seed theses
Compare - comparisons often end in one
Markets and Asset Profiles & Enrichment - the evidence behind a thesis
Portfolio - where your theses meet what you actually hold
Alerts - turn your rules into live notifications
Saved Research & Settings - keep supporting research next to the thesis
Last updated
Was this helpful?